New York Fashion Week on the horizon: who's the next superstar?

Who will be the next big face of the SS12 season? Above you will see a google table from the SS 11 New York Fashion Week shows which I designed in an effort to answer that question for the SS11 season. This was a personal project of mine I coordinated with the help of about 6 other people. The objective was to provide an easy drop down menu to track the shows the girls walked and thus recognize the best new faces to watch as well as predict which models were being favored by designers and/or casting directors.

Since history often has a tendency to repeat itself, I thought the information from the SS11 shows might help predict the coming SS12 shows. Not all shows are included though, just the more influential ones.

So for a change of pace on the blog, I thought I'd plug in some quick analysis of the past in order to help foresee the future. What are the most directional shows for a model to walk at New York Fashion Week (and fashion month in general) and what makes those shows valuable for a model? Let's start with Calvin Klein, the legacy of campaigns which helped launch Kate Moss into stardom.

Calvin Klein SS11 basic break down as a predictor of the SS12 show:

21 different models/34 different looks.
2 models walked 3 different looks each
9 models walked 2 different looks each
10 models walked 1 different look

Easy Facial Recognition--the girls wear little make historically, so a place in the Calvin Klein lineup will improve the booking chances for the SS12 campaign/editorial season.

2 different shows--There are 2 showings of the Calvin Klein show, so all key editors, stylists, and photographers usually attend. This quantity of attendees improves the chances that the models will be recalled for future bookings.

good model to look ratio/only 21 models for 34 looks--unlike other shows which have 1 model per look. The limited number of models improves the chances their face will be recognized for future bookings.

conclusions: repetition, key attendees, and proven track record make Calvin Klein a key show for models to walk

32% chance a model will walk the runway more than once. A repeat walk is worth more than a single walk because the repetition gives the editors another chance to recall the face. It's like a 2d go see.

two different shows reduces chances that a possible influential attendee does not get to see a key face.

Somebody behind the scenes at Calvin Klein chose Daphne Groeneveld to walk the runway 3 times. Look how well she fared afterward in the editorial/campaign season. Basically, if you see a girl walk Calvin Klein 3 times this SS12 season, the odds are good she will be a big name to follow.

Back to regular scheduled street style shots soon!


Kate said...

I'm hoping there will be a new fresh face that starts popping up everywhere. As much as I love Sasha, Frida, Karlie, etc. it'd be a nice change of pace.

Unknown said...

There definitely will be. The modeling industry has had 6 months roughly to search for the new faces of the coming fashion new year.

It's such an exciting time!

Katherine said...

What about Emily Baker?

Anonymous said...

This was so interesting!! I hope we'll see different bodies, rather than faces. Although I know that's kind of an impossible dream!

AUi said...

A great new model who was looked at by CK but it's up in the air if she'll do NYFW is Terese Pagh on Marilyn NY/Elite Denmark. She recently did the Express campaign and is featured on their website. She has just begun in NY after being based with Elite Paris and was recently profiled in Vogue Italy's website. She looks like a cross of Claudia Shiffer and Bardot and is 18 y/o.

Unknown said...

very interesting!!!

Anonymous said...

Great post! I personally wouldn't mind the occasional analysis or similar. Tho I do enjoy your style shots, too! xx

sajuki said...

can't wait for this fashion week :D

loubehr said...

exciting !!!!!!!

Kerold och Carolinas reflektioner said...

Wow, you've put in a lot of work to calculate this. I'm impressed! And I visit your blog almost everyday.

Anonymous said...

Such an awesome work Sir!! Looking forward to see your works for the upcoming season and can't wait to see the new faces of #SS2012

Amby of art8amby

Unknown said...

@AUi--I'll be on the lookout for Terese Pagh for sure. Vogue Italia's site seems to do a good job sniffing out up and comer's, so a stop to Marilyn's Union Square office may even be in the works. Thanks.

the chic addict said...

Hooray for Samantha Gradoville and Ruby Aldridge!


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